Get your wishlist ready

It’s time to get a wishlist of stocks ready. A list of names that you love. Names that have a fundamental story you feel confident in, to buy at a moment of capitulation.

Here are a few stock names that came to my mind tonight. Names I’d like to deploy cash in my short term trading account for Option trades. Possible support levels listed.

1) aapl

338 (50 day simple moving average)

335 (23.6 Fib)

*323 (100 day sma)

*300 (50% Fib)

291 (200 day sma)

The two supports with * are two that I think are very possible in a flash capitulation moment

 

2) JDSU

Love the MSFT Kinect story and I don’t see their earnings momentum slowing just yet.

23 (20day sma)

18 (gap fill & 50day sma)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3) POT

Picked up some stock on Friday, too early as it fell further today. But I’m getting ready to buy Call options and the timing needs to be much better. I’m not so sure we will get much lower than where we got today, but anything is possible.

165 (50day sma)

157.3 (previous dip bottom)

153.3 (previous breakout level and 100 day sma)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4) AGU

89 (trend line support)

86.5 (100 day sma)

85 (previous dip low)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some additional names:

CMG (240.5)

GMCR

LVS (44.11)

WYNN (119, 114.5)

GS (160, 156.3)

RIMM (65.3)

 

Best Finance Apps for Apple Ipad

There is not a doubt that the Apple Ipad is a destructive technology. It has destroyed my sleeping hours as I spend endless hours on it. Here is a list of my favorite finance Apps.

1) CNBC

Stock charts, quotes, videos, Futures, After hours, Mad Money, Fast money videos everything is here with this exceptionally well built Free Ipad App.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2) Wall Street Journal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3) Twitter for Ipad (made by Twitter themselves)

Surprisingly this is the best Twitter client for the Ipad. Interface is clean. Viewing links are quick and easy to return to your stream. Viewing user profiles also a breeze. Better than Tweetdeck for Ipad.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4) NASDAQ OMX Portfolio Manager w/ Stocktwits support

Best thing about this is it has Stocktwits support. When you get a stock quote, you can view what the Stocktwits community has to say about it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5) Zinio

Not strictly a finance App but Zinio is a great Magazine reader to read your favorite articles. Harvard Business review, Economist, Bloomberg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Notable Ipad Finance Apps:

- New York Times

- BBC News

- CNN News

- Bloomberg

- Flipboard

$aapl

URL

I apologize for the pictures not showing up in my older posts. I changed the URL to ‘alfietrade.wordpress.com’ and when I ported the posts over, wordpress lost all the pictures.

I don’t have a copy of the pictures on my computer so I am unable to upload them back.

Just wanted to let you know that this only applies to older posts, not to the new posts.

Cheers!

Industries China won’t catch up on for next 100 years

 

For countries that want to make money in China or compete with China from a position of strength, it is futile in the long run to compete in most technologies and heavy industries. However, there are industries that China can’t catch up on for at least two or more generations. First are industries that cultivate in societies with at least 2-3 generations of affluence already. Where there has been no worry to put food on the table as far as the mind can remember and money alone is not the driving factor. But dreams of greater things that benefit society and your fellow citizens. Second are industries that cultivate in societies with a desirable characteristic, a national identity that is missing (or weak) in China today.

For the former, one such is Biotech and Stem cell research. To excel, there needs to be a mentality beyond only profits. But a desire to benefit society and have moral limits as to what is good and bad (see China’s tainted milk scandal). Further, a respect for intellectual property and protection of it. Singapore is one example that has directed their efforts heavily into already. They have traditionally invested heavily into the semiconductor business but they know that in the long run (maybe already now), they cannot compete with China.

 

For the latter, one example is quality healthcare. The demand from the new rich and growing middle class is immense in China. It is a market that is hugely under served. When it comes to Healthcare, people will always pay up, not down for. No one looks for a bargain. I believe Thailand stands to benefit the most, whom already exports their world class health expertise and facilities to many countries.  They have a characteristic in their culture of care, sympathy and cleanliness that are some of the key ingredients. Bumrungrad private Hospital (http://www.bumrungrad.com/)  for example, already have facilities all over the world.

I was in one of their hospitals in Bangkok recently. The cleanliness of their facilities and the professionalism of their doctors and nurses are a given. But in particular, I was surprised at how many patients from Arab countries and the Indian subcontinent were there. It makes sense because healthcare in their own countries are lacking and likely poor in quality. A flight over to Bangkok is only a few hours maximum (and why not enjoy a holiday by the beautiful sandy beaches after the visit). The only limiting factors for Thailand to build and setup more facilities in China are regulation/red-tape and limitations in personnel that will work abroad.

What was a thought I wanted to tweet got too long, the reason for this post. I’ll talk about other industries that fall into these categories in a future post.

Google after earnings review

So now that Google has released earnings, what next? This is a follow up to my previous ‘A case for Google’ blog post.

Google hit it out of the park with their earnings. Google gapped up to $600 on the first day and has been going higher. I made some handsome windfall profits with Nov 580 & 600 call options that went up 400% the day after (all trade entries and trade exits were tweeted, I believe in transparency. Trade ideas are cheap, a dime a dozen. But only when a trader backs it up with their own actions of entries and exits does he/she truly add value to the trading community).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Review

As I predicted in the ‘Case for Google’ post entry, the following came true:

-  Before earnings, Google stayed below the downtrend line but above the underlying support levels

- Google needed good earnings to power out of the downtrend line

- Google would reach $600 in a hurry

- From their conference call, Mobile Android is really gaining steam with over 200K new users a day

- Amazon, Baidu and Apple post-earnings reaction were all good but none had as big a run-up as Google did

Now What?

I am still very bullish on Google and currently own November calls w/ 630 strike price.

In the short term, the price targets are $630 (52 week high) and then $644. The $630 price target is obvious but the $644 area is where I think Google will encounter some real resistance. We can see this from the weekly chart below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In conclusion, congrats if you followed me into this trade, I am happy to be of help. It was risky but the risk was defined using options (defined maximum loss) and the rewards give a big boost to your annual performance.

Now, the game plan is to buy Google on dips and sell on rips. Repeat until we get to $644 and we’ll see what to do then.

Cheers and best of luck!

A case for Google

I’ve been trading in and out of google $goog, the market has been good and I’ve made some handsome profits. However, the continued strength in Google has me thinking that a big move is coming. I don’t usually make a play on earnings but I am contemplating buying November calls (or Oct calls if aggressive) before their 3rd quarter earnings to be released after market on Thursday 14th October. Read on if this interests you.

Positives:

1) Forex gains. Google has a great forex hedging program that made them 70+ million last quarter. In addition to that, the US dollar has been falling steadily this quarter and Google gets over half of their revenue from outside the US. Therefore, overseas earnings will be boosted when converted in to US dollars

2) ANDROID. I am a strong believer in their mobile ANDROID operating system. They are gaining market share from both $RIMM and $AAPL. In the last quarter, they stated that they were adding over 160K ANDRIOD users a day, a new user every two seconds. Although they don’t make money from ANDROID directly (it is free open source) there are many indirect ways to make money. Their Apps store (where google takes 30%), mobile search click throughs and future music store and book store revenue. See here for more info

3) The new Google platform as outlined in their last earnings call has many new features such as real-time search and up to 50% faster search results keeps them in the forefront of search engines from competition

4) Youtube display ADs are gaining steam and with their dominant position as the go-to online video site, it is the ebay equivalent of the online market place. More viewers, more videos, more videos, more viewers. The couple billion they paid for Youtube is looking like money well paid

5) During the worst of the economic downturn in the US and Europe, they maintained steady revenue growth (despite at a slower rate). If one believes we are coming out of recession, revenues should only increase, assuming all else being constant

6) The last few quarters, Google share price has been hit every time after earnings due to high analyst expectations. The expectations on Google have come down since then

7) Now that Google has settled somewhat with the Chinese government regarding censorship issues and have their license renewed. They have resumed hiring in China and back on track with their China strategy. Any sign of them gaining back market share from $bidu would be a huge boost to investor confidence. P/E ratio of $bidu is 103 VS only 23 for $goog. Imagine even if a little of that $bidu investor expectation transfers back to $goog

8 ) $bidu nor any of the other Chinese search engine have a competitor to ANDROID in China and mobile search continues to become a larger share of total search. China as it is in US and Europe

9) Perhaps a bit subjective, but I believe Google has gained much user respect from the Chinese web user population despite losing in the censorship argument with Beijing

10) In China, the more affluent educated web users have always choosen Google over Bidu. One can argue the revenue from these users are higher and more valuable

Google together with Apple, Bidu and Amazon are what I consider to be the four horsemen of Big cap Technology (Research in Motion is no longer a horsemen, ponymen maybe). Google I consider to have the highest chance to power higher. Apple and Amazon are priced for perfection and so is Bidu with the highest P/E of them all.

Apple P/E 22

Amazon P/E 64

Bidu P/E 103

Google P/E 23

Technically, I believe Google will need a good earnings to rise out of the descending trendline dating back to January 4th of 629.5. From now until then, it will likely be chopping between the trendline and the supports below before earnings.

Support levels are approx 519 and then 510. I like that it has stayed above the 200 day MA and that the 20 day MA looks to cross above the 200 day MA soon. The worst case scenario are the support levels at the circled 50 day MA and 100 day MA at 491 and 485.

If Google does have a good earnings, it could be a quick ride to 600.

Negatives:

1) Mobile credit-card click throughs are still low as users are reluctant to pay for various web services through their mobile phones

2) Any negative news out of China. Such as revoking of their license, inability to gain back market share and other various problems with the authorities

3) Possible lower revenue from their dominant US and Europe markets due to slow economic recovery

4) Continued battle with Apple Iphone and Ipad platforms, should Apple gain back momentum over ANDROID

5) Youtube still censored in China while competitors gain a stronger foothold

6) According to the latest from alexa.com, Google properties in China (Google HK, Google COM and Google CN) are only ranked 5, 8 and 15 respectively for web traffic in China

7) Windows Live search/Bing and yahoo fighting for market share from behind

8 ) In China, mulitiple competitors are cutting up the web user pie and each gaining a fair audience, perhaps regional preferences in China (Sina, Sohu, Soso, Sogou)

9) A significant number of insider selling has occured in September and October. Perhaps the biggest red flag to me. Source yahoo.

So quite a few things to consider and ponder about. Thanks for reading. You can follow me on twitter or stocktwits where I will tweet should I enter the trade.

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries–Winston Churchill

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries–Winston Churchill

And the inherent flaw in democracy is the spending of tomorrows money to win todays votes. In a world where people born in developed societies feel entitled to a good life, politicians have no choice but to spend recklessly to stay in power. Power corrupts and even politicians who may know that taking a bitter pill is good for the long run, will inevitably make the wrong choices and lead the country further into decline. Boom and bust cycles are unavoidable. All great dynasties eventually fall as others will rise up to take her place. Societies are constantly moving in cycles like waves in the ocean. What goes up will come down and what goes down, well, could sometimes come back up. But not often.

Starcraft 2

Some of you may be familiar with the games Warcraft, Diablo and World of Warcraft. These are all titles made by Blizzard and after they got acquired Activision Blizzard. Warcraft 3 is perhaps the best Real-Time Strategy (RTS) game of all time and Starcraft 2 is about to be released in a month. In the meantime, the Beta version has been played by some lucky few who got a Beta test key from Blizzard. I couldn’t get one but fortunately, the Starcraft 2 Beta has been cracked by gamers and made available to play against a computer opponent.

1) Download this torrent, an all in one package http://thepiratebay.org/torrent/5465800/StarCraft_2_BETA_AllinOne_pack_(game__loaders__last_maps__last_A

2) Follow the included instruction for installation.

3) Use the loaders to load the game. DO NOT run the starcraft executable and don’t let it update the patches automatically. The only loader I could get working is the ‘allinone’ loader.

4) The last tricky step is choosing the map from the loader window. The only maps that I could get working are the moded maps in the maps folder found in the package.

I’m a huge Warcraft 3 fan even after so many years. It is still one of the most playable and popular RTS games today. Starcraft 2 Beta however, I found the gameplay somewhat choppy. Movement felt slow as the units seem to lumber around. There is alot less finesse in Starcraft 2 compared to Warcraft 3, where mouse control and speed makes a huge difference in the outcome of a battle. Further there is the lack Hero units like in Warcraft 3. Having heros give your armies a center of control and focus increasing the dynamics of the game. Why? I don’t know, more serious fans may know the answer. On the plus side, the graphics are very nice and the depth in the game is tremendous with many upgrades and units that can be built. With three races (Protoss, Zerg, Terran), there will be many different strategies that will evolve on Battlenet.  But my conclusion to Starcraft 2 so far is that it is not as playable as Warcraft 3 and I don’t see it reaching the same level of success either. We’ll see when the full release comes out.

Trading stocks for a living

I’m a full time stock trader. Market operator, day trader, gambler, hedgie etc doesn’t matter what people like to label this, its the same thing. I watch the markets everyday, follow all market moving news and place my ‘bets’ hoping to be rewarded in a defined time frame. Sounds simple enough and it is. Its not a ‘hard’ job, farming is hard, working in an office for a clueless boss is hard, grinding it daily at a job you don’t like is hard. But where trading is hard is the mental toll it takes and the emotional swings one endures. Your emotions get swung from one extreme to another. From pure ecstasy to fear that makes you puke. My belief is that one of the key ingredients to being a good trader is the ability to control and harness ones emotions. This requires high self-awareness and the ability to look at oneself objectively and admit flaws and short-comings.

Everyone can be a trader. It is one of the fairest professions available where one is purely awarded based on merit and there are no barriers to entry. You can make as much money as you can, skies the limit. But if you fail, your account will pay the price, no one will protect you. You have no one else in your ‘team’ to blame. Its just you and only you. There is also no barrier to entry, with a little money, you can open a brokerage account and you are ready to trade. There are no degrees, certifications, local professional bodies to block you (and often foreigners with qualifying certifications) from entering the profession. There is no protection, you stand in the battlefield and fight it out daily with other market operators to get a cut of the pie.

This brings me to the loneliness factor. Trading can be lonely. On a typical day, I spend 7 1/2 hours watching tick by tick 30+ stocks and indices. I also spend an additional 4-5 hours daily reading up on news, blogs, doing research, scanning over charts and analyzing oversea markets. It is easily an 11-12 hour work day for me next to the computer with little human interaction. Twitter has come along and its application to traders has been tremendous, the best thing since trading has gone online. With twitter, you can interact with other traders all day, sharing ideas, getting breaking news and learn how others trade. It is not unlike trading in a large prop trading firm in one of those large halls you see on CNBC.

…to be continued in part 2 where I will talk about herd mentality in trading, the difficulties in changing your bias in the markets when most required and the benefits of trading as a full time job

I love to write

I love to write, but can never seem to find the time to do it. I have started blogs in the past but can never seem to keep up with posts. I think by nature, I don’t like to speak too much if I don’t feel I am knowledgeable enough on a subject. However, when I feel I am knowledgeable, I want to write a GREAT piece on it. But great pieces takes time and determination to write up. Especially for perfection minded myself. The result is a state of inertia in posting blog posts.

In my mind, the best bloggers are people who:

a) love to write

b) have good writing skills to capture the audience

c) have a curious mind

d) have interesting topics that induce others to think

e) is unafraid to open up their lives to the public, indifferent to how others may think of him/her

I don’t have all of the above, but I try to apply as much of it as I can to my blogging. Because I think blogging can be quite satisfying even if I am the only one who ends up reading it. Over and over. Vanity maybe. Its like a diary of thoughts except it satisfies an inner human desire to be heard by others.